1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Are match outcomes tell the whole story? That is the question. The Villans' triumphant run continued against Manchester United, but so did the nagging doubts. Statistically, they were inferior by multiple metrics – a lower shot count (12-15), a smaller share of the ball (43-57), fewer big chances (2-3). Once again, the victory was tightly contested. As usual, the xG metric painted a different picture: analysis indicates United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. However, supporters understand games are not won by xG. They are won by collective effort, shrewd management and individual talent – and Villa have all three. Morgan Rogers might just be their primary talisman, but he is performing as a timely gift. The Villa manager is shrewd, experienced, streets ahead of the United boss. The fact Rogers took advantage from a positional error, that was probably because the coach had detected that his opponent was uncomfortable, and instructed his winger to take up a wide position, cut in and cause him problems. Talent and management, working together.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 in late October, their fans felt optimism return. They managed three league games on the bounce for the initial occasion under the Portuguese coach. Their position climbed to fourth. And the wins were impressive victories – over Brighton (one of their many bogey teams), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (at Old Trafford, against a promoted club, but still – a comfortable clean sheet). Their keeper provided stability, their forward line sparked and morale was high. But then United went back to black. Over the next eight fixtures, only two victories, six missed opportunities. In the recent fixture they were the more dominant side without ever seeming like taking three points. Yes, their forward scored a fine effort, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to important midfielders), but they conceded soft goals. After 13 months in England, the manager has yet to solve how to claim three points.
3. Below-Par Gunners Get on Their Grind
It was an 8pm kick-off on the Saturday before Christmas but a noticeable shortage of fluency in the final third made for a forgettable match. For Everton, the issue was expected with creative forces absent, and Jack Grealish unable to spark an entire team on his own. In many respects it is surprising that David Moyes’s side were in fifth place in the table two weeks earlier given they have played the entire season without a reliable number nine. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he relished a hard-fought three points and ascending to the summit of the table, the deficiency should be equally concerning given their title aspirations in the Premier League. The manager claimed that victories will inevitably become bigger with graft and determination. But it is somewhat premature in the season for a team that can start with elite players, while leaving exciting options on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.
4. Guardiola’s Festive City Investigations
During the holidays Pep Guardiola will check the weights to ensure his Manchester City players have not indulged too much. Guardiola said his squad requested to take a day off after their 3-0 triumph but the request was denied because their display lacked quality. So it's recovery, work for those who didn't feature, and post-holiday, then brief training for the upcoming match. The manager outlined how improvements can be made. “My strength is deciphering what happens in the game, where are the spaces – if the players were in the right areas, we could create more.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I will be on vacation with the family for celebrations. I'll visit Barcelona – I recommend it, the food is excellent.”
5. Isak’s Injury Overshadows Big Moment
Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a fleeting moment, as a turning point. This was precisely the reason Liverpool splashed the cash for him to do, to break tight games with his movement and range of finishing, and the confidence with which he converted from an incisive ball boded superbly. So the image of him leaving immediately, following a ill-judged tackle, was a major worry for the Dutch coach and disappointing for the spectator who would like to see an extraordinary talent hit full tilt again. Reports suggest Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he probably endures a extended spell on the sidelines. It would be a major blow with Liverpool having quietly moved into the upper echelons, putting together a six-game unbeaten run featuring Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear tied up with those of their £125m investment.
6. Penalty Debate Rages After Newcastle Draw
Managers often lament controversial calls as a means of shifting the focus from matters they want to keep private. The significant tally Newcastle have squandered when ahead this season is a prime example. Their manager certainly did not seem particularly eager to mention that costly trend following his side’s collapse from a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they ended up drawing. Yet Howe was surely correct to highlight a decision made by the on-field referee and VAR not to award his team a penalty following a blatant body check on Anthony Gordon. With the score then 2-1, a penalty could have swung the momentum. Was the decision to offer the defender the doubt informed by the player's history for being very clever at drawing contact and sometimes simulating? Comments by a former England striker was revealing. “Gordon’s waiting,” came the observation. “He knows the challenge is coming and he's ready. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the force and aggression there … that’s not shielding the ball.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s maiden victory on the road this season spelled relief for Keith Andrews. Rather than celebrate, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is increasingly desperate; statistical models state – possibly kindly – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving nothing to play for beyond professionalism. A veteran player brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
